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During the war of Donald Trump, it hides more opaque logic than it seems. It seems that this strategy to protect the US economy will also decrease to seduce a privileged voter. Why focus on so many sectors? Why maintain intense tariff pressure? If the slogans speak of sovereignty, the elections sometimes betray much more targeted interests. And now that there are surcharge surcharges, the real question remains: What is Trump really looking for?
In short
- China-US’s dwellings suspended 90 days after secret negotiations in Geneva.
- The global logistics economy remains disturbed despite the temporary reduction of US cells.
- US households always increase the prices of imported basic products.
- China still refuses to modify its control economic model in the face of American pressures.
Historical suspension of surcharges between the United States and China
During the night of May 12, at 6 am, French time, Most of the repressive customs surcharge between China and the United States has been suspended. This decision means a Unprecedented in a trade war. Washington brought back from 145 %to 30 %, while Beijing reduces 10 %. Donald Trump appreciated this progress on Fox News:
We have a very, very solid agreement with China.
The financial markets immediately responded. American tracks jumped. But this suspension is limited to 90 days. She leaves the hard points of the conflict unanswered. The Discussion in Geneva He allowed this break, but did not solve the main structural differences.
China always rejects any modification of its economic model focused on exports. Fentanyl remains the main apple. The risk of recovery is already hanging at the end of the summer.
Tariff War: Diplomatic lever or economic trap?
The Geneva Agreement is presented as a turning point. It is based on a temporary ceasefire price. But out of the decline in rights, Tension remains alive. The Actual tension They have been concerned with semiconductors, strategic metals or even repressive measures against opioids. Analysts remain careful. ” The jury has not yet returned its verdict “Greta Peisch warns.
The delay is short. The negotiations are complex. Some votes are calling to re -evaluate the economic strategy of Trump. Its method? Use prices as a geopolitical lever. But does it risk the threat to the global economy? This break, as spectacular as it can be, could only be a diplomatic rest before the new escalation.
Logistics channels shaken by trade war
The tariff war directly influenced the business economy. Chinese business giants as Shein or Temu saw their logistics turn upside down. The minis threshold has been reduced and temporarily weighed the conditions for direct import.
But the uncertainty floats. Masse companies deposited in the United States. Amazon revised its offer flows. American customs are trying to follow. Director of WTO worries:
The global ward would be a disaster.
The global supply chain depends on the liquid economy. Gold Current rules promote fragmentation. In Asia, the factories reorganize their production. In the United States, some companies meet their industrial strategy. But how long? Delivery times are extended, costs explode. And the consumer in all this? Applies, in silence.
Household economy in the face of prices: Who really pays?
On the side of American households, the effects are already felt. Prices are increasing on shelves. Economists are concerned about this pressure. ” This remains a huge disruption of basic needs “Clark Packarde notes.
Applied taxation first penalizes modest households. In some states, 48 % of taxed packages goes to the poorest areas. The aim of the measure is also focused on fentanyl, but without clean profits. Drug supplies are slowed down. Even surgical gloves reach 100 %taxes. Here are several key numbers:
- 30 %: The current rate of customs on most Chinese imports;
- 145 %: Peak reached taxes in April;
- 3 %: share in the Chinese American trade in world trade;
- 8.1 %: Increase in Chinese exports in April;
- 18 %: Reduction of Chinese imports in the United States.
The impact is obvious. And just starts.
A pressure strategy that divides analysts
While Kryptos as Ethereum is rising, the world economy is suspended from the future decisions of Washington. Experts evoke Unpublished commercial diplomacy. Trump uses prices as permanent negotiating lever. But that’s not enough. The agreement will not solve the question of intellectual property. Beijing remains adamant.
” China will not change its economic model in 90 days “Robert Kuttner said. The fentanyl crisis remains at the core of the tension. Trump maintains 20 % of surcharges related to this file. The trade war exceeds the economy.
Switzerland is trying to mediate. Europe remains behind. Negotiations with India and Japan are suspended. Every discussion is more difficult. Consensual cracks. Trump’s strategy opens dialogues, but it is slow to persuade merit.
Trade tension overwhelmed markets and disrupted the economy in the United States, as elsewhere. However, the unexpected decline in American inflation surprised analysts. Should we see a strategic victory or a simple cycle effect? The economy remains the core of this global clearing. The sequel will be written on several fronts.
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Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.