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May 2025. Bitcoin sails over $ 103,000, but this number, obviously dizziness, can only be a simple warming up. Because behind the scenes is built structural imbalance: the bottom supply like snow in the sun, while institutional demand rises. Some are already talking about a point that will not return. Others, such as Bitwise or Strategy, bet on price explosion – up to $ 200,000 by the end of next year. An inevitable myth or mechanism? It is certain that the race is launched and that problems are colossal.
In short
- The annual Bitcoins offer is limited to 165,000 BTC in 2025.
- Institutional demand already exceeds production.
- The $ 200,000 threshold becomes a trusted short -term goal.
Tireless arithmetic of unbalanced market
At first glance, the market seems to be stable. But under the surface, a quiet shock offers an ecosystem. Matthew Hougan, Cio de Bitwise, did not change his words: “The equation is simple: there is not enough bitcoins for everyone.” And he has numbers to support his words.
In 2025, the annual BTC production was limited to 165,000 units. However, institutional actors – in mind – have already absorbed much more than this amount. In the United States alone, incoming flows on Bitcoins ETF exceed $ 6 billion and continues to grow. Meanwhile, the reserves of minors are falling and sales are increasingly rare. Liquidity slowly but surely dries.
Result? Bitcoin remains stuck around $ 100,000, not for lack of interest, but because the market spends this new agreement. And according to Hougan, as soon as this consolidation is completed, the next goal will be mechanically $ 200,000. Not in ten years. Since 2025.
Strategy: A whale that redefines the rules of the game
But that’s not all. Behind this gentle shock is a key player, almost invisible to the general public: strategy. Under the leadership of Michael Saylor, the company is accumulating BTC, to this day has been holding more than 568,000 bitcoins. It is more than 2.7 % of the maximum offer and is not over.
Over the last six months, the strategy has gained almost 380,000 BTC, which is more than twice the annual network production. This in itself causes the effect of the equivalent half and creates an artificial deficiency that feeds on ascending dynamics.
Analysts are formal: if this rate is maintained, the strategy can soon control markets with bitcoin lending. Its influence would be that it could indirectly determine the cost of capital in bitcoins. The first in modern currency history. Bitcoin would no longer be a decentralized currency in a strict sense, but a benefit with gravity orbiting a new center: the first BTC superpower.
End of cycles for bitcoins? Place yourself in the era of institutional hyper-capaline
Forget four old -year cycles, which are marked with a dizzying increase followed by brutal cracks. This model can belong to the past. According to Hougan, the massive presence of institutional actors and financial products supported by BTC has transformed the nature of the market.
Old rules -Bull runs post -Halving, correction -80 %, stagnation -Dele. The arrival of continuous liquidity, long -term retention strategies and diagrams of upsetting professional management. Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset and is no longer a simple speculative product.
Add unstable macroeconomic context, negative real rates, pressure fiducial currencies and the table is obvious: Bitcoin mutated into a digital currency stallion, rare, solid, invariating.
Adam even talks about BTC for $ 1 million. Extreme forecast? Maybe. But in this new paradigm they are the basics – and not speculation – that lead dance. In this configuration, $ 200,000 is not a marketing promise – they are a logical extension of systemic imbalances.
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Evariste, fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, has not stopped documenting on this topic. If his first interest focused on trading, he now tries to actively understand all cryptocurrency progress. As an editor, he tries to permanently provide high quality work that reflects the condition of the sector as a whole.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.