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Discreet but decisive leaning agitates world markets. Traditional pillars of finance lose their aura, while active in the area considered to be a marginal profit of legitimacy. Indeed, the growing distrust of the sovereign debt causes the bond market to release, previously the base of stability. In this climate of uncertainty, it is necessary to interrogate: bitcoins, often described as speculative, would not become the true value of refuge?
In short
- The global bond market is experiencing historical pressure and in the United States and Japan increases highlighting.
- US debt exceeds $ 36.8 and the expected interest reached in 2025 952 billion.
- Japan, the main foreigner of the American debt, draws attention to his own budget situation, considered “worse than Greece”.
- Bitcoin attracts more and more institutional capital despite the context considered unfavorable to risk assets.
Bond fracture challenges pillars of global financing
French obligations will lose credibility, in the context when markets question their state of refuge. Currently, this is the case of the United States and other developed countries. This 22nd May achieved the performance of a commitment at 30 years of 5.15 %, which is a summit since October 2023. Revenues grow in Japan, global growth slows down and the confidence of US consumers has a historically low level.
It seems that this unstable context, which would once cause bitcoin decrease, today feeds on its progress. In parallel, the gap between the ties aged 5 and 30 has exceeded 1 %, an unprecedented level since October 2021.
This signal reflects the revision of economic expectations in -depth:
- Permanent growth;
- Permanent inflation;
- Maintaining interest rates at a high level for a longer period of time.
US debt costs explode and interest is estimated at $ 952 billion in 2025, with a total debt exceeded $ 36.8 trillion.
The situation is all the more worrying because the United States is not alone. Japan, the main foreign holder of US cash register accounts with $ 1,130 billion, also sees its climbing.
Bank of Japan has seen its key rate from -0.1 % to 0.5 % in March 2024, which ended the decade of ultra -baches. Since then, long -term revenues have been addressed: the 30 -year -old rate has reached 3.1 %, which is an absolute record, while 20 years climbed to 2.53 %, a level we have not seen since 1999.
Japanese Prime Minister Shiger Ishiba even stated before Parliament that the budget situation in his country was “worse than Greece”, an assessment of a meaning for a country whose debt reaches 260 % of GDP. This context nourishes the general distrust of sovereign debts, including debts from the most developed economies.
Bitcoin attracts capital in search of neutrality and resistance
While state duties seek to play their role of refugees, bitcoins are now attracting massive institutional flows. Unlike the classic logic that an increase in bond brings risky assets, BTC continues to proceed.
Increasing yields have traditionally had to consider risk assets. However, actions and bitcoins are rising. This discrepancy emphasizes the shift of the paradigm: investors seem to reject traditional diversification formulas and turn to assets outside the debt -based money system.
The rise of ETF bitcoins, whose fluctuations now exceed $ 104 billion according to Corglass, illustrate this trend. This rush BTC is explained by the search for an asset that is effective and politically neutral.
Bitcoins, so far perceived as a speculative asset, are increasingly considered to be the digital equivalent of gold. It seduces its independence from monetary policy, its finished offer and its resistance in the face of macroeconomic instability. The market is beginning to integrate the fact that BTC can embody the active active active component and a value tank, a double cap, which has so far appeared contradictory, all the more, because its volatility is now lower than Volovka Nasdaq and S&P 500.
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A graduate of the Toulouse and the Blockchain Consultant Certification certification holder and I joined the adventure of Cointribuna in 2019. I convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many economy sectors, committing to raising awareness and informing the general public about how the ecosysty developed. My goal is to allow everyone to better understand blockchain and take the opportunity they offer. I try to provide an objective analysis of messages every day, decrypt trends on the market, hand over the latest technological innovations and introduce the economic and social issues of this revolution.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.